iPhone? Android? Blackberry? or is it the new Windows Mobile 7?Over the last couple of months, I’ve been urged by a couple of people to write a “Tutorial for mobile app developers”. They figure that as I’ve been doing this since ‘99 I must know something that’s of interest to some other people. Now I’m generally a little too lazy to take on a project like that, so I figured I maybe take it on in installments, kind of one chapter at a time. But I didn’t really get around to it until today, when after moderating the Mobile Track at the Eye For Travel Distribution Summit I realized the audience still has some pretty big questions and promised I’ll do my best to answer them, so here goes.
Still wondering about an App vs. a Mobile website? Wait for the next article.
Mobile Platforms – What’s Out There?
A few words about each OS (listed Alphabetically to avoid misleading prioritization):
Remark: At this point in time I ignore Palm’s Web OS – which is sort of “dormant” in the market right now.
Gartner presented this chart a few month ago:
How The Platforms Differ in The Marketplace
Android: Android is trying to be for Smartphones what MS-DOS and later Windows are to PCs (see for instance what Fred Wilson writes about it). This results in a platform that reaches a very varied demographic / psycho-graphic, with a world-wide distribution. While this is good for Google, for you it may mean that much of the audience is composed of people who are inclined to use their Smartphones as feature-phones – not necessarily App-savvy / quick to spend on Apps. This is why many developers who develop both on iPhone and Android, for instance, claim that iPhone Apps monetize an order of magnitude better.
BlackBerry: RIM is traditionally very strong in enterprises – as a tool furnished to executives and managers as well as many other professionals. This represents an upscale demographic. However, as many of these people see the BlackBerry as a tool provided by their employer, and also because of its inferior App search / download / install capabilities compared to iPhone for instance – the propensity to download Apps and especially to buy them is lower. Lately, RIM has successfully penetrated the consumer market in many countries, reaching new audiences – not as affluent, and not necessarily focused on the “Smartphone” capablities but more on the pure communication / messaging capabilities of the platform.
iPhone: Riding on the coat-tails of the iPod and Apple’s brand, the iPhone reached the US “creative class” first. Coupling this early adopter / high-income audience with a great App download / purchase / install user experience, iPhone users download more apps then any other platform’s so far. However with the iPhone moving further down the adoption graph and wider geographically, the demographics today are more varied.
Windows Phone: A brand new entrant to the game, it remains to be seen what audience it will draw and where. An informed guess would suggest it will be similar to Android’s, as we’re looking at the same set of manufacturers more or less, and the same target markets.
What’s Hard, What’s Easy
Some of my favorite developers like to use the following rule-of-thumb:
What costs 1 man-month on iPhone, will cost 1.5 man-months on Android, 2 on BlackBerry and 4 on Symbian
… Windows Phone is new, but as it’s Silverlight based and has a uniform screen / device layout, I guess it will be somewhere between iPhone and BlackBerry – once some developers develop the skill set.Relative ease / difficulty of development defines your fixed cost. But how hard it will be for you to penetrate the market effectively will affect more important variables – your actual success, or at least your variable cost (if you’re going to pay for marketing). This makes the market dynamics for each an even more important factor.
One area where they differ is the hurdles you need to jump in order to distribute your app. On the iPhone, an application has to be certified by Apple, which will take awhile to test it and may reject it (sometimes without even notifying you) for a number of reasons, the chief ones being objectionable content, not enough real functionality, or business conflict with Apple’s goals. On other platforms while there are submissions processes to the store, in actuality there’s very little filtering. In most cases you can also directly distribute (via a mobile web download) without ever going through the store. While this is a marked difference between the platforms – unless your application is in direct conflict with something Apple is doing, it’s not really a significant point.
More significant are the competitive environment, and how the distribution channel (mainly the App Store / World / Market) is managed.
The Competitive Environment for Apps: Circa 2010
I say “initially” because the App Store has a memory, and the best way to draw downloads is by being ranked in the “Top 25” charts. This constitutes some of the most valuable exposure to end users. If you can break it into the Top 25 in a category (or better – overall), then you can remain there for awhile with limited further investment. And if your App and / or Brand are very good – then only meaningful competition can unseat you. However, do note that this is not easy. One of the reasons is that the iTunes App Store takes into account two main factors – Velocity (how fast has your app been moving in the last 24 hrs more or less) and Total Downloads. So incumbents have an advantage – unless the new App shows people are crazy for it.
Taking all this into account, one would argue that it may make sense to first try in another, more virgin territory, where the competition is not as fierce, and the incumbents are not as strongly established. With Android claiming about 60,000 apps, and BlackBerry a fraction of that, you theoretically have a better chance to compete. That is right, but you also need to consider the target audience and market dynamics. Android users tend to buy much less. This is due to a combination of factors including iTunes being more effectively hooked to a payment mechanism (all iTunes users must input their credit card details and payment is a one-click process) and the iPhone audience being more conditioned / more open to paying. So if that’s your business model, the returns may not be as good. BlackBerry users download less. However those who do, are willing to pay more. Whether or not that offsets the lower downloads, will depend on your specific case, and the overall product and marketing mix. With Symbian the distribution game is more complex – with the Ovi Store being just one channel to the market, and alternative stores (e.g. GetJar) and direct downloads being in many cases an important channel too. However in general the propensity to pay for Symbian Apps is much lower than on the other platforms, in my experience (and WorldMate has millions of pretty up-market Symbian users…).
So how to factor all of this into a decision? In my next post I will try to give some examples of how such a decision should be arrived at.
... Questions? request? post your comment below and I’ll try to address it in the next installment!